🔴 By | Arvind Jadhav
🟡 Trump Turns to Economic Warfare su
The confrontation between the United States and Iran is entering a new and potentially more dangerous phase. After months of military confrontation, Washington is now intensifying economic pressure on Tehran, with the Trump administration warning countries that continue doing business with Iran that they could face serious consequences.
U.S. officials are also pressing China to support the campaign against Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Beijing to “get with the programme”, signalling that Washington wants the economic pressure to extend well beyond American sanctions.
The strategy represents a major shift in emphasis. Instead of relying only on military pressure, the United States is seeking to squeeze Iran through its oil revenues, international trade and financial networks.
🟡 China at the Centre of the Storm
China is likely to be one of the biggest tests for Trump’s strategy.
China remains Iran’s most important oil customer. Reuters reported that China imported approximately 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day in 2025, using complex trading and shipping arrangements designed to withstand U.S. sanctions.
That makes Beijing critical to the success—or failure—of Washington’s economic campaign.
If China significantly reduces Iranian oil purchases, Tehran could face additional financial pressure. But if Beijing refuses to cooperate, Washington could face the difficult choice of imposing penalties on one of the world’s largest economies while already dealing with a major geopolitical confrontation.
🟡 Strait of Hormuz Becomes the Critical Pressure Point
The economic confrontation cannot be separated from the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors.
Any prolonged disruption around the waterway threatens oil and gas supplies and can quickly affect prices across international markets.
Oil prices have already climbed to their highest level in more than three weeks as investors assess the continuing uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and energy supplies.
The concern is not simply about the price of crude oil. Higher energy costs can feed into transportation, manufacturing, electricity, fertiliser and food prices, creating pressure on economies far beyond the Middle East.
🟡 India Is Watching Closely
For India, the developments carry a direct economic significance.
India has traditionally maintained important commercial and diplomatic links with Iran, although U.S. sanctions have sharply constrained bilateral trade. Reuters reported that India’s trade with Iran fell to around $1.63 billion in 2025–26, with humanitarian goods accounting for much of that trade.
Any further escalation around Iranian oil exports or the Strait of Hormuz could therefore create wider consequences for India’s energy security, shipping costs and inflation.
The immediate question for New Delhi will be how to protect its energy interests while navigating increasingly complicated relations between Washington, Tehran and Beijing.
🟡 Can Economic Pressure Force Iran to Change Course?
That remains the biggest unanswered question.
Washington hopes that restricting Iran’s access to international trade and oil revenues will create enough economic pressure to force Tehran back towards negotiations.
Iran, however, has rejected Trump’s latest threats and described them as an attempt to divert attention from America’s own problems.
That means the economic campaign could become a prolonged confrontation rather than a quick route to negotiations.
🟡 The Bigger Global Risk
The most important danger is that the economic war could trigger another cycle of escalation. If Iran’s oil exports are further restricted, China refuses to cooperate, or shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces additional disruption, energy markets could react sharply. That could transform a regional conflict into a much wider economic crisis, pushing up fuel, shipping and commodity costs across the world.
For global markets, therefore, the question is no longer only “What happens on the battlefield?” It is increasingly “How far will the economic war go—and who will pay the price?” A prolonged confrontation could put additional pressure on inflation, energy security and international trade, making the Iran crisis a problem far beyond the Middle East.
